Commodity Market Today 15 Oct: Gold, Silver, Crude Levels
On this page 5 sections
In short: Hotter-than-expected US inflation hit precious metals on Wednesday. MCX gold fell about 1.6% and silver about 5.1% as the dollar and US bond yields rose. Crude oil bucked the trend and gained about 0.9% on Middle East supply worries, while natural gas slipped about 2.9% and copper eased 0.9%.
What happened yesterday (14 October)
| Commodity (MCX) | Latest price | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Dec), ₹/10 g | 1,46,135 | −2,315 | −1.56% |
| Silver (Dec), ₹/kg | ~2,08,000 | −11,217 | −5.12% |
| Crude oil (Oct), ₹/bbl | 9,031 | +78 | +0.87% |
| Natural gas (Oct), ₹/MMBtu | 303.90 | −9.10 | −2.91% |
| Copper (Oct), ₹/kg | 1,403.95 | −12.80 | −0.90% |
Why the moves:
- US inflation hotter than expected: September CPI came in at 3.7% against 3.6% expected, and core at 2.6%. Markets now see a higher chance of another US rate hike.
- Stronger dollar, higher yields: The US dollar index rose above 102 and the US 10-year yield climbed to about 5.28%. Gold and silver pay no interest, so they fell.
- Silver hit harder: Silver broke its ₹2,12,600–2,17,600 support zone and international silver fell 4–6% to about $56–57 an ounce, the biggest fall among the metals.
- Crude supported by conflict: Fighting involving Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis kept Brent near $106, outweighing the stronger dollar.
- Natural gas weak: MCX natural gas slipped back below ₹305 into its support zone as milder US weather forecasts weighed.
Intraday levels for today (15 October)
The first level on each side is the one to watch at the open.
| Commodity | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10 g) | 1,47,470, then 1,48,980 | 1,45,470, then 1,43,960 |
| Silver (₹/kg) | 2,13,200, then 2,22,800 | 1,98,500, then 1,93,300 |
| Crude oil (₹/bbl) | 9,145, then 9,250 | 8,925, then 8,820 |
| Natural gas (₹/MMBtu) | 310, then 317 | 300, then 292 |
| Copper (₹/kg) | 1,417, then 1,423 | 1,400, then 1,390 |
International levels (in $):
| Commodity | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,180, then 4,236 | 4,081, then 4,039 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 58.40, then 61.00 | 54.40, then 53.00 |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 96.20, then 97.20 | 94.10, then 93.00 |
| Natural gas ($/MMBtu) | 3.25, then 3.32 | 3.14, then 3.06 |
How to read them: Gold's pivot is around ₹1,47,470: above it, the bounce can extend; below ₹1,45,470, yesterday's selling is still in control. Silver's pivot is about ₹2,08,100 and it is very volatile after a 5% fall, so its levels are wide. Crude's pivot is ₹9,034: a move above yesterday's high of ₹9,145 opens ₹9,250, while a break below yesterday's low of ₹8,925 opens ₹8,820.
Weekly and positional levels
| Commodity | Weekly resistance | Weekly support | Positional support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10 g) | 1,51,500 | 1,48,000 (broken) | 1,44,400 |
| Silver (₹/kg) | 2,22,600 | 2,12,600 (broken) | 1,98,500; then ~$50 (≈₹1,82,500) |
| Crude oil (₹/bbl) | 9,310–9,380 | 8,850–8,870 | 8,800 |
| Natural gas (₹/MMBtu) | 324 | 300–305 | 291–292 |
Bigger picture: Gold and silver have slipped below their weekly support, so the weekly trend has turned weak until gold gets back above ₹1,48,000 and silver above ₹2,12,600. Crude remains supported above ₹8,800 while Brent holds above $100. Natural gas is testing its 300–305 support ahead of the 27 October expiry.
Events to watch today
- US weekly natural gas storage report: around 8:00 pm IST. A big storage build would add pressure on natural gas.
- US Federal Reserve speakers: after the hot inflation print, any hint of another rate hike would keep the dollar firm and weigh on gold and silver.
- Middle East headlines: any escalation involving Saudi Arabia or shipping routes can move crude sharply.
- Rupee: a weaker rupee lifts MCX prices even when international prices are flat.
Pokharna Research view
The hot US inflation print has shifted the short-term picture: a firm dollar and higher yields are weighing on gold and silver, while crude is held up by supply risk. For today, gold ₹1,47,470 and silver ₹2,13,200 are the levels that decide whether yesterday's fall extends or a bounce begins. Expect wider-than-usual swings in silver.
This report is educational and informational. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a call to trade any commodity. Commodity futures are leveraged and carry high risk. Pokharna Research does not claim SEBI registration.