Commodity Market Today 16 Oct: Gold, Silver, Crude Levels
On this page 7 sections
In short: Metals bounced back on Thursday after Wednesday's inflation shock. MCX gold rose 1.13% and silver 1.11% as the dollar eased and bets on an October Fed rate hike cooled. MCX crude jumped 1.85% as US crude (WTI) climbed about 2.6% on Middle East and Russia supply risks, even though the IEA announced an emergency oil release. Natural gas edged up 0.69%, while copper slipped 0.37%.
What happened yesterday (15 October)
| Commodity (MCX) | Close | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Dec), ₹/10 g | 1,47,489 | +1,641 | +1.13% |
| Silver (Dec), ₹/kg | 2,10,660 | +2,322 | +1.11% |
| Crude oil (Oct), ₹/bbl | 9,285 | +169 | +1.85% |
| Crude oil (Nov), ₹/bbl | 9,177 | +147 | +1.63% |
| Natural gas (Oct), ₹/MMBtu | 306.00 | +2.10 | +0.69% |
| Copper (Oct), ₹/kg | 1,398.80 | −5.15 | −0.37% |
| International | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold futures ($/oz) | 4,192.50 | +2.06% |
| Silver futures ($/oz) | 56.24 | +0.66% |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 97.59 | +2.63% |
| Brent crude ($/bbl) | 105.92 | −0.13% |
Overnight news (US data, 15 October)
| Data / event | Actual | Expected | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| US PPI (wholesale inflation), Sep | +1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y) | +0.5% | Very hot; supports Fed hawks |
| US retail sales, Sep | +0.8% | +0.3% | Strong, but mostly higher petrol bills |
| Retail "control group" | +0.1% | +0.3% | Underlying spending is soft |
| US 10-year bond yield | 5.08% (down ~8 bps) | — | Lower yields support gold |
| US natural gas storage (week to 9 Oct) | +67 Bcf to 3,567 Bcf | — | Stocks 1.3% above 5-year average |
Why gold still rose despite hot PPI: traders had already priced in hot inflation after Wednesday's CPI, the weak "control group" pointed to softer spending, and US bond yields fell as money moved from tech shares into bonds. The dollar also slipped from an 18-month high, and markets now doubt the Fed will raise rates in two meetings in a row.
Important news
- Gold rebounds as Fed-hike fears cool: After Wednesday's hot US inflation print (CPI 3.7%), gold recovered from a one-week low as the dollar and US yields slipped and markets scaled back bets on an October Fed rate hike. Spot gold now faces its 21-day average near $4,208, which analysts call the key level to reclaim.
- IEA emergency oil release: The International Energy Agency said member countries will release 100 million barrels from emergency stocks to ease supply worries. Brent stayed near $105–106, so the release has not yet pulled prices down.
- Supply risks keep crude firm: Shipping risks near the Strait of Hormuz, a Ukrainian strike on a refinery in Russia's Ryazan region, and a possible US easing of curbs on some Russian tankers kept traders on edge. WTI rose about 2.6%, lifting MCX crude.
- Silver recovery slower than gold: Silver bounced only about 0.7% internationally after Wednesday's 6% fall. Analysts see ₹2,15,000 as a possible recovery level, but silver remains the most volatile metal.
- Stronger rupee limits MCX gains: The rupee gained 31 paise to 94.86 per dollar on Thursday. A stronger rupee means MCX prices rise less than international prices, which is why MCX gold rose 1.1% while international gold rose about 2%.
- Crude October contract expires Monday (19 October): Traders are rolling over to the November contract, which trades about ₹108 below October.
Intraday levels for today (16 October)
The first level on each side is the one to watch at the open.
| Commodity | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10 g) | 1,48,310, then 1,49,140 | 1,46,020, then 1,44,550 |
| Silver (₹/kg) | 2,11,860, then 2,13,060 | 2,09,290, then 2,07,930 |
| Crude oil Oct (₹/bbl) | 9,460, then 9,630 | 9,010, then 8,730 |
| Natural gas (₹/MMBtu) | 310, then 317 | 300, then 292 |
| Copper (₹/kg) | 1,405, then 1,417 | 1,390, then 1,380 |
International levels (in $):
| Commodity | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,216, then 4,239 | 4,151, then 4,109 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 56.56, then 56.88 | 55.88, then 55.51 |
| WTI crude ($/bbl) | 99.40, then 101.20 | 94.70, then 91.80 |
| Brent crude ($/bbl) | 107.10, then 108.30 | 104.10, then 102.20 |
| Natural gas ($/MMBtu) | 3.25, then 3.32 | 3.14, then 3.06 |
How to read them: Gold's pivot is about ₹1,46,850. Holding above it keeps the rebound alive, with ₹1,48,310 the first hurdle; that area also lines up with the old weekly support of ₹1,48,000, now acting as resistance. Silver's range yesterday was narrow, so its intraday levels are tight; a move beyond ₹2,13,060 or below ₹2,07,930 can quickly extend towards ₹2,15,000 or ₹2,04,400. Crude's range was wide (WTI moved almost $5), so its levels are wide too; pivot ₹9,180.
Weekly and positional levels
| Commodity | Weekly resistance | Weekly support | Positional support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10 g) | 1,48,000, then 1,51,500 | 1,45,000 | 1,44,400 |
| Silver (₹/kg) | 2,12,600, then 2,15,900 | 2,04,400 | 1,98,500 |
| Crude oil (₹/bbl) | 9,460 | 9,000 | 8,800 |
| Natural gas (₹/MMBtu) | 324 | 300–305 | 291–292 |
Friday close matters: A weekly close above ₹1,48,000 for gold and ₹2,12,600 for silver would show Wednesday's fall was a one-day shake-out. A close below ₹1,45,000 for gold would keep the weekly trend weak. For crude, holding above ₹9,000 keeps the trend positive while Brent stays above $100.
Events to watch today
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech (tonight, India time): the biggest event of the day. After hot CPI and PPI, any hint of an October rate hike would lift the dollar and weigh on gold and silver; a softer tone could extend the metals' bounce.
- US Baker Hughes rig count: around 10:30 pm IST, a weekly signal for US oil supply.
- Middle East and Russia headlines: any escalation near Hormuz or new refinery strikes can move crude sharply.
- Crude rollover: the October contract expires Monday; expect volume to shift to November.
- Rupee: a weaker rupee lifts MCX prices even when international prices are flat.
- Next week: crude October expiry (Monday 19 October), natural gas October expiry (27 October) and the US Fed meeting (27–28 October).
Pokharna Research view
Thursday's bounce eased some of the pressure on gold and silver, but both are still below the weekly supports they broke on Wednesday. Tonight's Warsh speech and today's weekly close are the key tests: gold ₹1,48,000 and silver ₹2,12,600 decide whether the recovery holds. Crude remains supported by supply risks despite the IEA release; ₹9,000 is the level that keeps the trend intact.
This report is educational and informational. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a call to trade any commodity. Commodity futures are leveraged and carry high risk. Pokharna Research does not claim SEBI registration.