Commodity Market Today 20 Oct: Gold, Silver, Crude Levels
On this page 6 sections
In short: Metals slipped on Monday as US bond yields and the dollar rose. MCX gold fell 0.44% to ₹1,47,266 and silver 0.64% to ₹2,09,828, while international gold lost about 0.5% to near $4,160. Crude stayed close to five-month highs: Brent settled at $109.55 after swinging more than $3 during the day, as attacks on Gulf energy sites outweighed hopes of more Russian supply. MCX natural gas fell 2.28% and copper 0.60%. The rupee firmed slightly to 94.92 per dollar.
What happened yesterday (19 October)
| Commodity (MCX) | Close | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Dec), ₹/10 g | 1,47,266 | −652 | −0.44% |
| Silver (Dec), ₹/kg | 2,09,828 | −1,359 | −0.64% |
| Natural gas (Oct), ₹/MMBtu | 291.8 | −6.8 | −2.28% |
| Copper (Oct), ₹/kg | 1,392.65 | −8.35 | −0.60% |
| International | Close | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (COMEX), $/oz | 4,160.1 | −0.50% |
| Silver (COMEX), $/oz | 57.27 | +0.49% |
| Brent crude (ICE), $/bbl | 109.55 | −0.28% |
| Natural gas (NYMEX), $/MMBtu | 3.058 | −1.86% |
| Copper (COMEX), $/lb | 6.576 | +0.68% |
| US dollar / rupee | 94.92 | −0.06% |
India (IBJA): 24-carat gold (999) ₹1,45,944 per 10 g (−0.33%) and silver (999) ₹2,08,750 per kg (−1.03%), closing rates of 19 October without GST.
Important news
- Higher US yields weigh on gold: The US 10-year yield rose to about 5.13%, reversing part of last week's bond rally, and the dollar firmed. Gold slipped below $4,150 in early Asian trade on Tuesday. Rising yields make non-yielding gold less attractive.
- Fed: pause now, hike later? Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments at the IMF were read as supporting a hold at the 27–28 October meeting, but markets see a December hike as very likely. That "pause now, hike later" view is keeping gold below $4,200.
- Crude near $110 on Gulf attacks: Fresh attacks on Saudi energy sites and tanker incidents kept Brent near a five-month high, even as crude flows around the Strait of Hormuz held up better than feared.
- Russian supply hopes cap crude: A US move to ease some sanctions on Russian energy raised hopes of more diesel and crude supply, which is why Brent ended slightly lower despite the attacks.
- WTI contract rollover: The November WTI contract expires today. The expiring month settled at $103.66, while the more-traded December contract is near $98, a gap caused by the rollover rather than a real $5 move.
- Silver holds better than gold: International silver ended slightly higher (+0.5%), but MCX silver fell 0.6% because the rupee firmed. Silver remains the most volatile metal after last week's sharp swings.
- Festive demand in India: Reports point to steady festive-season demand from jewellers, which tends to support local gold prices on dips.
Intraday levels for today (20 October)
The first level on each side is the one to watch at the open.
| Commodity (MCX) | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10 g) | 1,48,190, then 1,49,113 | 1,46,727, then 1,46,187 |
| Silver (₹/kg) | 2,11,970, then 2,14,113 | 2,08,465, then 2,07,103 |
| Natural gas (₹/MMBtu) | 299.5, then 307.1 | 287.7, then 283.5 |
| Copper (₹/kg) | 1,405.4, then 1,418.1 | 1,381.9, then 1,371.2 |
International levels (in $):
| Commodity | Resistance | Support |
|---|---|---|
| Gold ($/oz) | 4,172, then 4,184 | 4,141, then 4,123 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 57.82, then 58.36 | 56.62, then 55.97 |
| Brent crude ($/bbl) | 110.12, then 110.68 | 109.01, then 108.46 |
| Natural gas ($/MMBtu) | 3.174, then 3.291 | 2.978, then 2.899 |
How to read them: Gold's pivot is about ₹1,47,650 and Monday's close was just below it, so ₹1,48,190 is the first hurdle; a slip below ₹1,46,727 would bring ₹1,46,187 into view. Silver's pivot is about ₹2,10,608; it also closed below, with ₹2,08,465 as the first support. Brent's range is tight on the pivot chart, but Monday's $3 intraday swing shows headlines can push it well outside these levels.
Weekly and positional levels
| Commodity | Weekly resistance | Weekly support | Positional support |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (₹/10 g) | 1,51,134, then 1,54,349 | 1,45,165, then 1,42,411 | 1,42,078 |
| Silver (₹/kg) | 2,22,044, then 2,32,900 | 2,04,151, then 1,97,114 | 2,09,169 |
| Natural gas (₹/MMBtu) | 313.4, then 328.1 | 287.8, then 276.9 | 263.8 |
| Copper (₹/kg) | 1,421.8, then 1,442.6 | 1,386.4, then 1,371.8 | 1,355.3 |
Gold is below its weekly pivot of ₹1,48,380 and silver below ₹2,15,007, so the weekly tone stays soft until those levels are reclaimed. For gold, ₹1,45,165 is the weekly support to hold; for silver, ₹2,04,151.
Events to watch today
- WTI November contract expiry (today): expect volume to move fully to December; the odd price gap between the two months should close.
- US bond yields and the dollar: with no major US data today, yields are the main driver for gold and silver.
- Gulf and Russia headlines: any new attack on energy sites or a change to Russian sanctions can move crude by several dollars in a day.
- Rupee: a weaker rupee lifts MCX prices even when international prices are flat, and a stronger rupee does the opposite.
- Later this week: US crude inventories (Wednesday, about 8:00 pm IST), natural gas storage (Thursday, about 8:00 pm IST), MCX natural gas October expiry (27 October) and the US Fed decision (28 October).
Pokharna Research view
Gold and silver are consolidating below last week's broken support levels, held back by high US yields and expectations of a December Fed hike. For today, gold ₹1,47,650 is the pivot to watch: holding above it keeps the tone steady, while a slip below ₹1,46,727 opens ₹1,46,187 and then the weekly support near ₹1,45,165. Crude remains headline-driven near $110 Brent, with Gulf supply risks on one side and Russian supply hopes on the other.
This report is educational and informational. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a call to trade any commodity. Commodity futures are leveraged and carry high risk. Pokharna Research does not claim SEBI registration.