Gold vs Nifty vs FD: ₹1 Lakh After 10 Years

17 October 2026 · 4 min read · Pokharna Research

In short: If you had put ₹1 lakh into each option in mid-October 2016, today you would have about ₹5.1 lakh in silver, ₹5.0 lakh in gold, ₹2.7 lakh in Nifty 50 and ₹1.9 lakh in a bank FD. But the shorter windows look very different: over the last year Nifty is down about 9.5%, and over five years even an FD has beaten it. The lesson is less about "which is best" and more about how much the starting point and the time frame change the answer.

The scorecard

Table: Gold is 24-carat per 10 grams and silver per kg (Indian bullion rates). Nifty 50 is the price index, without dividends. The FD assumes 6.5% a year, compounded, before tax.

The prices we used

Table: Bullion rates differ slightly between sources and cities, so we used the middle of the published rates and rounded. The direction and size of each result does not change with these small differences.

Why metals won the decade

• Gold went from about ₹29,600 to about ₹1,48,000 in ten years, roughly 5 times. A weaker rupee, central banks adding gold to their reserves, wars, and worries about inflation and US debt all pushed it up, especially in 2025 and 2026.
• Silver did slightly better over ten years but is far bumpier. It is part precious metal and part industrial metal (solar panels, electronics), so it swings much harder in both directions. In the week of 12 October 2026 alone it fell about 6% in a single day.

Why Nifty looks weak right now

• Starting point matters. In October 2021 Nifty was at a record high near 18,300, and in October 2025 it was near 25,600. Measuring from a peak makes any asset look poor.
• Dividends are missing. We used the Nifty price index. Adding dividends (the "total return" index) adds roughly 1–1.5% a year.
• The last year was rough for stocks: crude oil climbed above $100 and the rupee weakened to about 95 per dollar, both of which hurt Indian company earnings and foreign investor interest.

Over ten years, Nifty still compounded at about 10.4% a year, comfortably ahead of an FD.

What this does and doesn't tell you

1. Past returns are not a forecast. Gold and silver have had a huge run; that does not mean the next ten years will look the same.
2. Risk is not shown in a return number. Silver can fall 20–30% in weeks. An FD does not move at all.
3. Tax changes the picture. FD interest is taxed every year at your slab rate. Gold, silver and equity are taxed when you sell, at different rates.
4. Each one has a different job. Equity is for long-term growth, gold is often used as a hedge, and an FD is for safety and liquidity. Most families hold a mix.

Pokharna Research view

The decade belonged to gold and silver, but the "winner" changes with the time frame you pick. Before Dhanteras, it helps to look at what share of your savings is already in each bucket, rather than chasing whichever asset topped the last chart.

Sources

• Gold and silver, Oct 2016: goldpriceindia.com daily rates, 14 Oct 2016.
• Gold and silver, Oct 2021: Business Standard bullion rates, Nov–Dec 2021 (used as a cross-check for mid-October levels).
• Gold and silver, Oct 2025: Motilal Oswal (24K ₹1,29,450, 16 Oct 2025); All India Radio (₹1,28,460 and silver ₹1,64,370); StartupTalky (₹1,30,230 and silver ₹1,67,920).
• Gold and silver, Oct 2026: StartupTalky and Goodreturns rates for 16 Oct 2026; Pokharna Research MCX report of 16 Oct 2026.
• Nifty 50: Business Standard (8,583.40 on 14 Oct 2016; 25,709.85 on 17 Oct 2025, up 124.55); HSBC/5paisa (18,338.55 on 14 Oct 2021); NSE close of 23,146.15 on 16 Oct 2026.

This article is educational and informational. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a call to trade any asset. Pokharna Research does not claim SEBI registration.

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